A new analysis of Pennsylvania’s energy sector warns the state’s energy surplus could diminish beginning in 2030. That situation could produce near-term impacts on Maryland commercial real estate, including further increases in electricity costs, tighter interconnection conditions, longer development timelines, and increased uncertainty for power-intensive uses.
Maryland’s commercial real estate market depends on a reliable and competitively priced regional power supply. Pennsylvania is the largest source of generating capacity within the PJM regional grid and has long exported substantial power across the region. That export helps moderate energy costs, support reliability and meet demand in Maryland, which imports 40% of its electricity.
A September 2026 analysis commissioned by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, Assessing Electricity Resource Adequacy in Pennsylvania and PJM, warns this supply is tightening. Rapid growth from large users, particularly data centers, combined with generating plant retirements and delays in adding replacement generation, are driving the shortfall.
The study predicts PJM will fail to meet its own electricity resource-adequacy planning standard from 2027 through 2030. The regional electric system is designed to meet a reliability standard that limits potential electricity shortages to approximately one event every 10 years. Using the current PJM forecast and two different projection models, the report predicts such shortages could happen anywhere from six times every 10 years to 13 times each year, starting in 2030.
The report’s scenarios indicate that, without action, Pennsylvania’s surplus will narrow, raising questions about the Commonwealth’s role as an energy exporter. Although Pennsylvania remains a net exporter through much of the modeled period, its export margin shrinks in every scenario. Under one scenario, the Commonwealth becomes a net importer of energy by the late 2030s.